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Federer’s draw at Cincy following a similar pattern.

Posted by tennisplanet on August 14, 2007

There appears to be no worthy opponent to test Federer before he reaches the semifinal, a pattern similar to Montreal, Wimbledon, Roland Garros and even Hamburg.

When your most challenging match is expected to be in the second round, against an out of form Bagdatis, it is not the best scenario, considering the current landscape. Murray is out, and I expect Robredo and Ljubicic to be out too before they get to Federer.

There is a chance he might not even get Bagdatis, and his draw will most likely look like this:
Opening round: Benneteau.
Third round: Chela.
Quarters: Nieminen.
Semi: Djokovic.
Final: Nadal.

That’s like jumping into freezing water, right after coming out of an airconditioned room.

At Wimbledon he went through this:
Gabashvilli.
Fognini.
Safin.
Haas.
Ferrero.
Gasquet.
Nadal.

Gasquet was the only real deal there, and he was too dead to even walk on that court. You think the five-setter was the result of that ‘talent shock’? You bet.

At Roland Garros:
Russell.
Ascione.
Starace.
Youzhny.
Robredo.
Davydenko.
Nadal.

Robredo was the only one there to help acclamatize for the final shock, specially on clay against Nadal.

At Hamburg:
Monaco.
Ferrero.
Ferrer.
Moya.
Nadal.

Ferrer was the closest to the challenge there, with over the hill Moya and Ferrero, even though they are clay courters, but not enough for the ‘Nadal effect’. Luckily that affect was missing in the final.

Although Federer cannot be blamed for how the draw comes out, he will be blamed for not going all the way, now that the hard court season has not started well. Anything short of a title here, will be blown open by the media. And if it happens in the semifinal against Djokovic again, that will create a frenzy not seen for centuries.

On the other hand, Djokovic has Gasquet, Nadal has Youzhny and Gonzalez and Roddick has Berdych and Davydenko. Ideal to get your engine roaring and get yourself upto speed, right before the finals.

It is human nature. We tend to play down or up to the competition.

Not a perfect setting for Federer going into a ‘must win’ situation.

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2 Responses to “Federer’s draw at Cincy following a similar pattern.”

  1. bunnee said

    nadal gone. gasquet gone. ljubicic gone. gonzo gone. youzhny gone.

  2. avalyn said

    I think it has really been unfair the draws Federer keeps getting. Everyone says he’s favoured because it’s like giving him a free pass, but the truth is it hurts his game because he isn’t able to test himself against the better players, while they are all improving their game by playing each other.

    Secondly, the draws have favor the other players, because it allows them to advance more easily and thus allows them to accumulate more points to improve their rankings.

    Sure they want to keep the sport of tennis more exciting doing it this way, but it is unfair to see the bricks stacked against a player simply because he is No. 1.

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