Stepanek’s serve and volley and aces take down Federer for the sixth time this year.

 

Here is that one step back I have been barking about all along. This is after sustaining four steps forward and one step back for a while now. I only hope it doesn’t spiral down to one step forward and one step back eventually reaching the inevitable end.

This clearly is the most inexplicable of the six losses he has had this season - Djokovic, Murray, FIsh, Roddick, Nadal and Stepanek. Stepanek was faring the worst of the last eight, having lost a set in each of his three matches. And now he doesn’t even lose a set?

Guy is 29 years old, ranked 27th in the world and is having a miserable year so far:

Monte Carlo: 1st round.
Miami: 4th round.
Inidan Wells: 3rd round.
Australian Open: 1st round.
Adelaide: 1st round.

Sydney: Semis.
San Jose: Finals.
Memphis: Semis.

Going in, Stepanek had logged in over five and a half hours compared to under three for Federer. There was nothing to indicate a straight set loss, unlike some indications in all of Federer’s previous five losses.

With so much debris already removed from Federer’s path to the title in the last day or so, it is clearly disappointing for fans worldwide not to see Federer holding the trophy on Sunday.

The law of averages kicked in for Federer and the under 65% first serve and just 2 of 5 break point conversion, was too much for the seven aces and his other weapons to overcome eventually. But it is shocking to lose to this clown after overcoming Nalbandian, Djokovic, Canas and Karlovic just days ago. The only explanation that holds any water now is this: Federer is finding it increasingly difficult to hold his bar high enough with any regularity. The only other explanation could be his inclination to play up or down to the competition.

You need a six match string of victories to win Roland Garros. So far, not only is that continuity missing, it’s getting worse. The flashes of brilliance is enabling him to get through even the toughest opponents only to fall flat against an unheralded joker.

I don’t think that skin on Nadal’s blister will grow back and heal before he steps on that Hamburg court. Translation: Federer may have another shot at winning a clay event without defeating Nadal or a fit Nadal. It is critical for Federer to have Jose with him all the time for obvious reasons, unless of course the reason he was sent off was due to lack of chemistry. But that’s just a very small part of the equation at this point. Nevertheless, it appears the one thing that can be controlled for greater benefit more easily than others.

If his claims of being 100% fit are to be taken on face value, there is very little to account for this showing at the three clay events so far, considering he is the second best player on clay. Contrast that to the level of the No. 1 clay player and you will get the picture.

It’s hard to imagine Federer winning either Hamburg or Roland Garros, irrespective of whether Nadal is there or not, or what kind of draw he gets etc. based on his erratic showing this whole season. The only stat that can make it possible is consistency. WIthout that even a win over Djokovic, Nalbandian , whoever, is hollow and meaningless.

Did Nadal’s early exit play some part in this defeat? Maybe. Add the demise of Ferrer and Nalbandian and that could have mentally relaxed Federer to the point where he took it for granted, already thinking of his match against Djokovic in the next round. Who freaking knows!!!!!