Battle for No. 1: The French Open. From Jennifer. Thanks.

Jennifer

Battle for No. 1: The French Open

The No. 1 ranking isn’t in play, but No. 2 definitely is.

Heading into the midway point of the season, a stalemate has emerged in the battle for the top spot. The three contenders have all more or less managed to match what they did the year before, meaning that there has been no rankings movement among the top three since last August. And Federer has sewn up the No. 1 ranking through the French Open, so there will be no change at the top in Paris.

But look for things to get a lot more fluid after that. The packed lineup of big events over the summer will raise the stakes and making it harder to maintain the status quo.

Rafael Nadal was one match away from losing the No. 2 ranking at Hamburg, but made a big statement by defeating Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer back-to-back to win the title. As the defending champion, he has nothing to gain and much to lose at the French Open, but he also has a better track record there than anyone else – three titles, no defeats.

Federer also has limited room to move up because he’s defending a final, but faces no threat of moving down. Djokovic reached the semifinal last year, and will hit No. 2 if he outperforms Nadal in Paris. The Serb may still be No. 3, but he’s the one who’s been upwardly mobile this year.

Here’s the outlook for each player going into the French:

Ranking points available at the French Open

W 1000 | F 700 | SF 450 | QF 250 | R16 150
R32 75 | R64 35 | R128 5

ROGER FEDERER
No. 1 since February 2004

BASIC GOAL Go into Wimbledon as No. 1
NEEDS TO Get 35 points
POSITION Excellent. He’s already guaranteed not to lose the No. 1 position at the French Open. Reaching the second round would also secure Federer the No. 1 ranking going into Wimbledon.
AMBITIOUS GOAL Secure No. 1 beyond Wimbledon. He’ll have to win the French for that.
FORM Solid, if not spectacular. After an up and down start to the year, Federer had a consistent clay season coming into the French, winning Estoril and recording two finals and a quarterfinal at the Masters events. But he’s blown significant leads in each of his losses, particularly the two against Nadal (4-0, 5-1 and 5-2 in various sets). This is the Swiss’ most challenging surface, and he needs full inner confidence to make sure he doesn’t let any opportunities slip in Paris.

RAFAEL NADAL
No. 2 since April 2005

BASIC GOAL Stay No. 2
NEEDS TO Collect about 190 more points than Djokovic. That means reaching the second week and going one round further than the Serb.
POSITION Good. Barring injury, it’s difficult to see anyone but Djokovic or Federer stopping him, and he wouldn’t face Djokovic until the semifinals and Federer till the final. Even then, they would be underdogs.
AMBITIOUS GOAL Give himself a chance at No. 1 at Wimbledon. He’ll need to reach at least the final and hope Federer loses very early.
FORM Intimidating. He’s lost one match on clay this year, and has lost just two on the surface over the last three years. The only concern around him is mileage – he’s played a lot of matches over the past month and blisters took their toll in an early loss at Rome. If his body breaks down and he runs into a tough claycourter, all bets are off. Except for that scenario, he’s the formidable favorite.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC
No. 3 since July-August 2007

BASIC GOAL Get to No. 2
NEEDS TO Match Nadal’s result in Paris.
POSITION Simple, but tough. As the third seed, he’ll definitely be scheduled to face either Nadal or Federer in the semifinals.
FORM Encouraging. Djokovic has been a steady performer all spring, reaching the semifinals of Monte Carlo and Hamburg and winning Rome. The only thing he hasn’t done is defeat either Federer or Nadal on clay this year, though he gave Nadal all he could handle in a three-hour semifinal at Hamburg and has beaten them both on hardcourts. Given his vulnerability to getting worn down, Djokovic will especially want to avoid any long, bruising encounters in the early rounds to make sure he’s at full strength later in the tournament.

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