Who has a tougher group at TMC? Federer or Djokovic.

With the absence of Nadal, there are four players from amongst the eight clowns in Shanghai, who have had a break out year:

-Murray.

-Del Potro (First time).

-Tsonga (First time).

-Simon (First time – due to Nadal’s withdrawal).

Murray, Tsonga and del Potro have dominated in the second half of the year. Murray had a 14-match winning streak ended in Paris by David Nalbandian, while del Potro rose from No. 50 at the start of the year to No. 8 by winning four titles and compiling a 32-match winning streak. Tsonga, who lost the Australian Open final to Djokovic, has improved from No. 38 to No. 7.

Federer has Murray and Simon while Djokovic fields the other two. On paper it appears a pretty balanced draw. But when you take a closer look after taking into account all the luggage these players are shouldering and what’s at stake, Federer has the tougher group.

Federer now has the added pressure to narrow the point total against Nadal, apart from being protective of his gimpy back – not to mention the possibility of tying the all time record of winning the year ending championship with Sampras and Lendl.

Djokovic may have already moved on to the next season mentally to start fresh again. But if he lets Tsonga register a third win over him this year, it will damage his confidence even more, if it’s not already hit the ceiling yet. From what’s on paper today, it seems quite likely to happen, thereby sending Djokovic deeper into the rut he is already swimming in.

The three big matches to watch will be:

Federer vs Murray.

Djokovic vs Tsonga.

Djokovic vs Del Potro. 

Winner at all three will determine the direction of the H2H stats next season. Federer vs Murray could possibly determine who will be the President next year.