Federer:
The now ‘every cucumber’ knows strategy will be in full bloom from Nadal: Pound Federer’s backhand and then shoot a bullet to the open court to either win the point outright or evoke a gimme. But Federer has been able to take that abuse and still keep the scoreline pretty close.
The predictable return from Federer to Nadal’s forehand has to be mixed up to keep Nadal guessing. Additionally a slice from the backhand is not a good strategy since it provides an eternity for Nadal to set up for his forehand. The crosscourt shot which Federer has employed so far at least forces Nadal to rush his forehand, comparatively, producing at least a possibility that Nadal may misfire or will fail to place the ball completely beyond reach.
If Federer goes for his ‘running around the ball for the forehand’ strategy from the get go and the match goes into a fifth set, Federer will find himself exactly where he was at last year’s Wimbledon final: with no gas to close the deal.
Winning the first set will add to the mental lethargy to Nadal’s game and the ‘tired’ crutch may subconsciously place him on a slippery slope to give in, in just three sets. Conversely, Federer losing the first set will open the door for Nadal, not to mention the adrenaline rush it will trigger, to make Nadal completely oblivious of the five setter he played just hours ago.
If Nadal sees an opening, he will turn into an Agassi where all his physical troubles will be masked by the rush of motivation, until the match ends. That’s when he may not be able to even stand. Remember Agassi’s match against Baghdatis at the US Open?
Nadal:
Nadal’s stingy unforced error is the biggest threat to Federer winning this title. Nadal has cleaned up his game progressively for over a year now. Although his serve, the part begging for the most attention, is still languishing, it’s still almost impossible to force an error out of Nadal.
Translation: Federer has to come up with his vintage ‘out of the world’ shots to win a point outright – something Federer is not too fond off. If it keeps up, Federer gets anxious and frustrated forcing his run to the net and other BS.
Those shots against both Del Potro and Roddick which did not even meet the racket by a mile will not only connect but will come back even stronger and with an even ‘acuter’ angle if Nadal is even close to his usual self.
Nadal’s control of the ball, specially when changing direction has improved exponentially. Erstwhile, Federer had to just deal with that high ball on his left shoulder, knowing that Nadal’s ability to fire a bullet to the open forehand court was suspect.
Not anymore. Nadal now uses that pounding on the backhand to pull Federer off the court to fire that shot to the open court perfectly and with confidence. The whole freaking purpose is to stay away from the fearsome forehand or at least force Federer to engage it on the run without planting his feet.
Add to it the recent inconsistency that has crept into that forehand monster and Nadal feels even more encouraged to force the issue. Federer losing Wimbledon on his forehand only boosts Nadal to continue on with his backhand -forehand attack to frustrate Federer.
When Federer is somehow able to get the ball exactly where he wants it to execute a perfectly placed forehand, he overplays it not knowing whether he will have another opportunity to go on the offensive, thereby producing an error.
By now Nadal knows he has the anti-dote to Federer’s game. Since he has added the mental dimension to it, Nadal now relishes playing against Federer. Beating Federer on grass was the bigger achievement for Nadal than winning Wimbledon for the first time.
That precedent alone gives Nadal a huge edge mentally. But he has to still execute the blueprint and transfer it from the drawing board to the court under current conditions. Being an underdog despite being the No. 1 player in the world, plays right into the psyche Nadal loves when playing Federer.
The five setter against Verdasco may have taken away some ‘lethality’ from Nadal’s game, but the intangible underdog status may have compensated for it, if not tilted the scales in his favor.
Most of the tennis world is expecting a more lopsided final this time, given Nadal’s condition. It may very well happen, but as Verdasco has proven (he not only played and beat Murray and Tsonga back to back, he also played four doubles matches) that a strong desire and motivation can overcome any deficiency physically.
First set will be crucial to how fired up Nadal is for the whole match. Federer cannot afford to let this opportunity to get to No. 14 so early in the season pass. It may be as important as winning Wimbledon was last year, if not more, given the changed landscape all around.
Losing to Nadal on both grass and hard courts back to back in a Slam will not be a good omen for Wimbledon and beyond for obvious reasons.
If Nadal loses, Verdasco will surely instantly turn into a scapegoat. But if Nadal wins, which Verdasco is now praying for on his knees to avoid the backlash, it will prove to be a blessing in disguise and may even add to Verdasco’s hero status he earned at Davis Cup.
Verdasco may have been motivated to show Ivanovic, but in the end, Ivanovic may be the one having the last laugh – if Nadal loses. Can you even imagine Wawrinka pulling this on Federer? He may have gotten banned from his country – and Federer.
Additionally, Nadal’s showing at Wimbledon when he beat that clown in a match that lasted what three days, is surely something Uncle Tony is talking about. Although Nadal lost the final to Federer, it was on the surface Federer was most dominant. Australian Open has been the least dominant of Federer’s Slam portfolio, other than the FO of course.
You think Uncle Tony is harping on that, right about now? You bet!!! This is the time for Uncle Tony to do his job. This is where a coach is made or destroyed. It’s his responsibility to now provide ample and convincing reasons to Nadal to view the current scenario as ‘exactly where he wants Federer to be’.
Why? Because as has been proven over and over again, the title lies within Nadal’s mind more than his physical self. Verdasco is the most glaring and recent exhibit ‘A’ for it.
It would be a shame to see Nadal just cave in three sets to bring an anti climatic end to the first Slam of the year. Federer is very well positioned to reasonably pull that off which makes the perfect ‘blessing in disguise’ opportunity for Nadal.
If Federer wins this in any manner, Wimbledon, if not Roland Garros, may become a foregone conclusion with No. 1 rank a huge cherry on the top.
Can the match live up to it’s hype or will it just fizzle out to disappoint fans worldwide?
Answer coming up in a few hours!!!!




































