Who is most likely to beat Nadal on hard courts?

Who’s in Whose Head Now? From Imaginaryband. Thanks.

IMAGINARYBAND

Who’s in Whose Head Now?

I’m not sure about a lot of things in tennis right now. But to me, one thing seemed for sure at Indian Wells. The single biggest goal of the final for each of Nadal and Murray was to get inside the other’s head and assert himself. This was a long-term investment.

Unfortunately for Murray, Nadal got there first with a big pay-in. His natural style benefitted from the very windy conditions for sure (topspin versus flat hitting), but in addition mentally he dealt with it like the tough competitor we all know and applaud through gritted teeth.

Nadal succeeded in planting the seeds in Murray’s head, actually, by inaction. The ultimate passive/aggressive, he did not appear to get at all flustered by the wind. The way he approached it may well be because genuinely he is accepting and adaptable, as many opine. Did submissiveness prevail? Who knows? This particular mystery will remain part of Nadal’s power, until people have his personality figured out the way they now do Federer’s. But for now, the media are unable to get under Nadal’s sanguine skin.

In the match, Nadal played a winning card by making it appear as if nothing at all was wrong, as if Murray was the one with the problem, and it clearly frustrated and annoyed Murray. It was definitely an ideal opportunity to get under Murray’s skin, and as innocent as Nadal might appear after matches I believe it takes him a little work to keep up appearances when uncontrollable events start wreaking havoc. What?! He – an obsessive – just didn’t feel even an inkling of botherment that his normally consistent shots were sailing out?!

I think he just didn’t let on, and when it started helping him and winding up Murray, job done – he genuinely wasn’t going to be bothered any more by the wind, was he. I could also suggest a less interesting observation, that Murray was trying to disrupt Nadal’s concentration by yelling and venting at the umpire about that drifting piece of paper. He may well have been. Well it didn’t work, so – probably no repeat of the McEnroe tactic next time the two meet.

Several years playing second fiddle to Federer has given Nadal the perfect environment to develop a healthy level of philosophical thinking, all no doubt polished around the edges and nurtured by Uncle Toni and the team. In tirades against Nadal, I think most would agree that they don’t mean to attack him as a person – Nadal is a likeable guy, perhaps more so than Federer, and well… don’t really need to mention Murray. I think the patience and humility Nadal displays in his tennis are mostly natural traits. However when it comes to fierce competition there are factors that come into play which display the weaker sides of competitors’ personalities. “Winning ugly” takes on a whole new meaning when the likes of Murray and Nadal step on court to face each other. And as such – who will win their next match – can you really say? Talent is no longer a deciding factor, that is for sure. Nadal is very very good, but Murray and Federer are better players. Which comes back to point one – I’m not really sure about tennis at the moment.

Still, for a little while at least, it makes for fascinating watching, he says, trying to contain his disappointment

Photos.

 

On the catwalk.

Any questions?

No. 3 rank is slipping through his fingers and everywhere else.

Hantuchova is missing at Indian Wells!!!

She was last seen taking off from one of the practice courts. Officials said she had two bricks attached to her waist as a precaution, but it apparently proved insufficient.

An amber alert has been issued nationwide. She was advised to always be around Nalbandian but ignoring that warning has proven deadly.

When is the last time you laughed yourself to tears?

Yeah, remember the feeling? Nothing that was happening around you mattered. You were in a unique place. Additionally it felt great. Very much like ‘taking off all the burden from your shoulders’ kind of feel.

How about if you get that feeling every freaking day? Lucky for all you cheap lazy freaking freaks, it’s FREE.

Set your electronics to remind you everyday to shut down, stop and laugh your ass out – EVERY FREAKING DAY. Can I even dare to suggest twice a day to you miserable freaks?

You don’t need a reason to laugh. Just start a fake one and it will just build itself to a crazy frenzy.

Don’t try it at a grocery store or a bank. Not too many good things will happen then. I just saw someone do it, that’s all. What? Don’t freaking mess with me.

Although it may help clear the grocery isle next time you shop. It can also clear traffic around your neighborhood if you do it in your car and forget to roll your windows. These are scenarios I have just noticed other people attempting.

Try it TODAY and NOW. Geeeeeezzzzzzzzzz!!!!!!!!!!

Matches where the underdog beat the incumbent at his / her own game.

Nadal against Federer at last year’s Wimbledon. Federer had everything he wanted – Grass, 25 aces, 65% first serves in and 13 break points.

Nadal against Murray, Indian Wells ’09: Murray takes immense pride in being able to return every freaking ball, gloating every time he wins those cat-mouse rallies. Nadal won all but one of them and hit shots Murray could only run for and watch the ball sail in desperation.

Sharapova against Serena, Wimbledon final: Sharapova out-slugged Serena to win the title.

You got more?

Report card after Indian Wells.

Player	Titles	Match record	Points	$	Career titles
Nadal	2	21-2	14990	2,182,160	33
Federer	0	13-3	10910	874,900	57
Djokovic	1	17-7	8420	641,154	12
Murray	2	20-2	7850	953,937	10

Contenders: Miami.

Joker	Aces	Ist serve pct.	Sets lost	Tie-bks	Bk pt conv %	Time on court.	Matches played
Nadal	8	66	0	2	48	5:40	3 OUT
Federer	21	65	1	0	49	5:42	4 OUT
Djokovic	13	59	1	0	49	7:19	5
Murray	24	63	2	0	56	8:31	5

Seed casualty count: Miami.

Davydenko.

Nalbandian: 14.

Almagro: 19.

Soderling: 23.

Gasquet: 24 – Shoulder.

Karlovic: 26.

Fish: 27.

Melzer: 30.

Nadal after winning Indian Wells.

Whose loss at Indian Wells was most devastating?

Federer:

After surpassing last year’s mark of a semifinal berth at the Australian Open, Federer was looking to move up and clinch the title here to declare his ascendancy and dispel doubts on his fitness and a whole lot more.

Winning the title here would have killed many birds with one stone. Couple of them named Murray and Nadal. But that loss to Murray not only set him back, the way he lost the third set added another mountain between him and the pinnacle.

Is Murray’s domination of Federer even more stronger than Nadal was ever able to reach? Fact that Federer’s battles against Nadal has been mostly on Nadal’s favorite surface compared to the courts Murray has tamed Federer on should be enough to close that argument.

But if there’s any doubt, the absence of a close deciding set at ANY of Federer’s encounters against Murray should do the rest.

Djokovic:

This was the tournament for him to validate his Dubai title won without the big dogs. More importantly it was vital to make himself believe that he can run with the big dogs.

Not only was he not able to win the title against the big dogs, he was not even given an opportunity to play them, being taken out by Roddick, of all the freaking people.

His No. 3 rank should be gone sooner than even Murray expected. With just 570 points separating the two, it’s just a matter of time, unless Djokovic uses this writing on the wall to set his house in order for the next phase of his career. Getting a professional coach may not be a bad start.

Nalbandian:

Looking back, Nalbandian had a very real shot at winning the title if he had capitalized on any of the five match points Nadal offered on the platter. Title here would have given him a new lease of life, after the Davis Cup debacle that everyone blames him for.

This just adds another sting to that ‘best player never to have won big’ label, further eroding his confidence against the top players now.

Tool that will help Nadal inject himself in the GOAT debate:

Nadal’s title breakdown:

22: Clay.

9: Hard.

2: Grass.

0: Carpet.

33 – Total.

What kind of lame victory dance is that? This is the best you can come up with after that scoreline had this coming for hours? Either lie or sit, don’t squat when wearing white again – ever.

Nadal snaps out of slumber to stun Murray.

With the wind blowing as hard as it was, it all boiled down to this: How far was that racket an extension of your hand.

Nobody practices in 40 mph wind. The more control you had over the racket the more likely you are to win these kind of freak matches. Unforced error count is typically the strongest yardstick to determine how far up that pole you are compared to your opponent.

Nadal was able to play aggressively despite the conditions because he found his touch which had deserted him for the last three matches. Murray had to no choice but to play defensively to keep the UE down.

Did that groin play a part too? Who knows? But could have been a valid excuse.

I think Murray, mentally, won the championship just by beating Federer for the sixth straight time. This is not the first time he has sacrificed the win in the final for a win over Federer in the previous round.

Sure winning a Masters Series title would have been nice, but beating Federer gives him more bang for the buck for obvious reasons. How else do you explain such a lopsided scoreline when Murray was coming in as the most deserving candidate based on stats and everything else.

Even more intriguing was that Nadal was coming from the exact opposite direction, having struggled to close his past three matches, even having to save five match points.

Although Nadal’s unforced errors (17) were way above his average considering the lopsided scoreline, he was able to win many free points on his serve.

That a player as good as Murray couldn’t even reach ONE break point opportunity against Nadal on a hard court is a huge boost to Nadal’s chances of winning the US Open, if not a calendar Slam.

Federer’s loss in the semis was surely a huge blessing in disguise. If Murray, who owns Federer now, could win just three games, Federer would definitely have been blown off the court with sobbing that would have lasted a week.

It’s not that Nadal played some out of world tennis to win the title. He just relapsed out of the three match funk to play his routine game. And if that’s how severly hurt is the best hard court player in the world, what will be the fate of the likes of Federer? Want to take a step further? Just add the word clay.

Nadal owns the two most important titles of the season so far, despite the tremendous run from Murray at other events.

Huge credit once again goes to Uncle Tony and company to not only reverse the two match losing streak against Murray, but to destroy and hurt him where it hurts the most – the mind.

Nadal’s staff has the best guinea pig in Federer. All they have to do now is just duplicate that blueprint with minor modifications to snuff out any new rising threat until Nadal exhausts his physical prowess.

That’s a massive powerhouse Nadal has to lean for advice, strategy and confidence both on and off the court. With no one even close to that support structure, it’s hard to imagine anyone can outpace Nadal for too long.

If Uncle Tony can turn Murray, if he really is the next force in tennis, into another Federer, Nadal should transfer at least half of what he has in his account instantly to Tony’s account. Maybe throw in Xisca too, if she is not already there.

While there were some special conditions that may have played into the lopsided outcome, the fact that Nadal was able to respond to the challenge despite being off the mark for a few days cannot be ignored to crown him the most deserving champion.

The four-man race is suddenly looking like a two-man race now. With Djokovic receding inexplicably and Federer unable to move up a notch from last year, it’s all upto Nadal and Murray now.

And with Murray still unable to shine on the big stage (AO and here), this may be Nadal’s best and only shot at a calendar Slam this year. So far nothing seems to hint at anything otherwise.

If Nadal can keep his health together and be fresh by the time US Open rolls, this huge prize is his to lose.

Photos.

Israeli Soldiers Allege Indiscriminate Killing in Gaza. What a bunch of morons and idiots!!!

Click here.

Nadal vs Murray. Will groin decide the winner?

Hope that groin fall was a minor hitch from Murray to allow two healthy warriors to make the final worth watching tomorrow. These two clearly are going to be in many finals this year and beyond.

Murray has got to have the edge just with the stats he has coming in. Add the very convincing third set against Federer (win was more or less assumed) compared to the struggle Nadal has had all tournament long and Murray has a great shot at winning it handily.

But knowing Nadal you can always expect a fight to keep things interesting and Murray guessing to the very end. But based on what Nadal is bringing in, it’s not going to be easy for Nadal.

Nadal has to take this as a precursor to the only title he wants to win now: the US Open. He will face similar conditions and opponents on his road to the fourth leg of the calendar Slam.

If he cannot close the deal so early in the season at a Masters Series, US Open prospects may not receive a sizable boost, specially with his track record of fading out late in the season.

The only real advantage Nadal has over Murray, despite clocking more minutes on court, is to extend the match to the deciding set and let his superior conditioning and fitness take over.

Nadal also has to be mindful of Murray taking over his No. 1 sooner than later. To counter that NOW and find an effective antidote before it gets close should be one of his top priorities – more than winning the match.

After all, if he can do it to Federer in his prime, he can do it to anybody. Uncle Tony and his camp must be already working overtime to take Murray apart mentally and physically like they did with Federer.

With an eager pupil in Nadal, their task should be a lot easier.

Is this the start of a new rivalry for Nadal where he gets the short end of the stick, at least on hard courts, or will his camp produce a new potion to take him to another level?

Photos.

Roddick refuses the gift and UE wrapped match from Nadal.

Nadal’s unforced errors appear to be heading in the wrong direction – in a hurry. With every match at this event, the number has progressively gotten worse. He is running on fumes and simply willing himself to wins now.

That should end today. Murray is going to embarrass him mightily if correction is not made before the FIRST ball goes up in the air tomorrow. Not only is that stat deflating his confidence, it’s also adding unnecessary minutes on the court to remove the vital piece of his hard grinding game.

With a counter puncher like Murray across the net, Nadal will need all the energy he can summon to continue hitting those ground strokes over and over again.

Roddick clearly played one of his best matches against Nadal. Even his backhand was clicking to deny Nadal any opening. But it’s a testament of how superior Nadal is mentally, to take down a ‘firing on all cylinders’ clown even when his routine shots are getting shanked.

And BTW how did Roddick completely miss two of Nadal’s shots? He couldn’t even touch the ball even though the shots were coming right at him.

Roddick may have reached the farthest he could on the tour, given the current landscape, suggesting his title winning days with the top four present are long over.

Nadal’s unforced error slack seems to have been picked up by his first serve quality. His serve is now allowing him to win some free points now, as Nadal has added more pace and variety to it.

Roddick at the very least could have extended the match to three sets, but then may have faced the ‘Nalbandian’  bagel fate to throw cold water on all he did in the match and at this event.

Nevertheless, it was an inspiring run from Roddick to keep hopes of a continued swim in the top ten pool for some more time. It titles are his aim, he needs to add more ‘Memphis’ to his schedule. Rest are all taken.

If nothing else, this match proved to be more entertaining than many expected, in Djokovic’s absence, to thrill the crowd.

Breaking news: Federer loses without crying!!!

Remember once the high ball with top spin on Federer’s shoulder was the main obstacle? That’s no longer the number one liability. It’s now boiled down to this: Backhand – plain and simple.

You had to be blind and without brains to not notice Murray winning 110 percent of his points whenever he was able to force Federer to engage his backhand, despite Federer’s best efforts to avoid it.

Balls were flying all over the place when all that was needed was a decent backhand return against a straight simple ball.

Whenever Federer did manage to fire his forehand it was a winner nine out of ten times. That’s what happened in the second set mainly because Murray started to stray away from what was already delivering for him.

Having said that, Murray deserves tons of credit for being able to place the ball from even the most  difficult angles and pace to force Federer and eventually frustrate him enough to lose his cool. Not many can ‘bell the cat’ even though by now it’s an open secret.

Verdasco and Cahill learnt that the hard way in the previous match.

If this is really true, that a plain backhand has replaced the high ball, Nadal is going to ABSOLUTELY annihilate Federer. Maybe it was good for Federer to lose to Murray with some respect, than to take another humiliating beating from Nadal on hard court.

Nadal may not be firing on all cylinders but there’s a magic wand that transforms Nadal into a monster whenever he faces Federer, irrespective of what he has been doing leading up to that encounter. Pretty close to what Federer morphs into when facing Roddick.

This is another blatant sign of Federer’s game deteriorating, to validate the lacklustre results he has been having (by his standards) for now over two years. Getting broken twice in a set – twice (first and third set) is proof enough.

Granted Murray’s choking defense is partly responsible, but Federer always had enough firepower to eventually eclipse that against similar opponents in the past. Remember Canas?

Although this is what fifth straight loss to Murray now, at least Federer is holding the line from not losing to other clowns like Fish, Roddick etc. like last year – so far.

So Federer’s only shot at any title now is possible only if Nadal and Murray land on other side of the draw. At least he can expect to be in a better position physically and emotionally, IF Murray-Nadal rivalry takes off and each of their matches turn into a gruelling war.

So Federer will again go without a title while Nadal (1) and Murray (2) will add another one. While Federer may have retained his points by reaching the semifinal and further distanced himself from Djokovic, but Murray, even without winning the title, will gather vital points to pose potentially a more dangerous threat to Federer’s No. 2 spot.

BTW, did Mirka look gorgeous in that printed shirt or what? Mirka was not even watching even at the most critical points in the match, deciding to rather gossip about the up coming baby with other women.

Statwise, there’s not much to point out:

First serve percentage: 57%.

Bk point conversion: 2 of 10.

Aces: 3.

It appears the biggest barometer of how deeply a player has lodged himself inside Federer’s brain is how he fares at break points. Isn’t that the most glaring of all his stats against Nadal ever since the rivalry started?

Murray now has 6-2 H2H with Nadal at 13-6 against Federer. The way things stand today, these numbers are only going to get worse unless Federer slides a berth under the semifinal to avoid the clash altogether.

Prospects of Nadal or Murray not reaching a semifinal, irrespective of the surface, this season and beyond are pretty bleak.

I think Federer has come out early from his break as he did when under mono last year. 57 percent first serve and three aces probably point to that. If the back is really still hurting, continuing any further with the backdrop of everything else is just plain asking for retirement.    

Hope someone with a brain steps in to advise him since it appears Mirka has already left the building to prepare for the baby and beyond, and Federer has provided enough proof now that he does not always make the right decisions.

Retiring at No. 13 will mean more than just not reaching No. 14, considering GOAT status was once considered a foregone conclusion.

Nadal turning into Lendl or is this how he keeps tab on his opponent?

Photos.

Roddick builds strong momentum. Is it too late?

Imagine if Roddick had lost all those love handles after his first loss at Wimbledon finals to Federer AND switched coaches every week AND a trophy fiance would have found him good enough. OK, wrong sceanrio. He wouldn’t have any majors still.

But could have had few more finals to his name. Would that be good or bad? I don’t think this is really going where I wanted it to go.

But with this tremendous lift he is currently on, alongwith the sputtering from Nadal, the Davis Cup ‘closing the deal’ match, the home court advantage, the huge crowd support, an 81 percent first serve against Djokovic, fact that EVERYONE exceeds his ace average against Nadal – Roddick may be in great position to pull off an upset.

For him to win the title though, the other semifinal has to break out into an all out war with the victor completely screwed.

Nevertheless, Roddick has got to be extremely grateful for where he has reached so far, irrespective of what happens from now on. He has already exceeded his and many in his camp’s expectations.

I think the Ferrer match proved to be a perfect setting for him going into battle against the top four dogs. With one down, there are still two more to go.

Wonder if Roddick will be even able to walk if he wins this title from all the arrogance and pride this trophy will bring. He will be too stiff to even move.

Nadal eliminates Potro for semis berth but not without two stats still hounding him.

Nadal has now had four matches with following two stats alternately or together messing up his clean run to the finals at most events he has played in his career:

-Break point conversion.

-Unforced errors.

First serve percentage was also suspect in the beginning but he has been able to address that satisfactorily.

Nadal converted just four of 13 breaks he was offered landing him at a mere about 35% for the tournament. Granted he has been able to produce so many breaks but all that counts is whether you were able to capitalize.

Where it hurts the most if you are Nadal is the extra minutes those missed opportunities add to your ‘time on court’. It took Nadal an hour and 49 minutes to dispatch Potro. It could have been done easily within an hour. He is already at over seven hours on the court.

The unforced error count is more disconcerting than the break points. Why? Because that’s what has kept him in every match including the epics he has had against Federer.

Unless one of them is rectified ASAP, Nadal will not be winning against Roddick forget about the title.

With Murray having the best record so far amongst the contenders, not to mention the very little time he has spent on court, the Federer-Murray match may be a quick affair to eliminate the fuel advantage Nadal may have been banking on heavily to win the final.

Nadal had 27 freaking unforced errors in a two set match when he typically hovers around 12. That WILL not get it done, even against the current Roddick.

But knowing how badly Nadal is gunning for this title to boost his chances of winning the US Open among other reasons, it won’t be too huge of a surprise if Nadal pulls it all together in time for that Sunday bawling party.

Verdasco delays the crying, lets Federer win.

From this match I have no choice but to conclude the following to validate what many in the tennis world are already thinking:

Suppose I was to create an exact replica of Nadal tomorrow. The guy will be a virtual clone of Nadal as far his tennis skills are concerned but will not look like Nadal. I mean his face will be the only piece not matching the original.

You think Federer will beat him? You wanna bet Federer will blow past him eight out of ten times.

Why does this Verdasco match strengthen that argument? Have a clue? No, you don’t!!!

Verdasco beats Murray AT A GRAND SLAM, then turns around and almost takes out Nadal while doing double duty with five setters. Since both Murray and Nadal appear to now virtually own Federer, it’s reasonable to assume Federer will be extended to the max if not defeated by Verdasco, after what all Federer has been through lately.

Although Verdasco may have pulled it off if he had won the second set, Federer won mainly because of some huge lapses from Verdasco than any consistent brilliance from Federer.

What it proves is this:

If doesn’t matter how badly anyone consistently beats Nadal or Murray, he will still lose to Federer. Why? Because you need to be deeply lodged in Federer’s mind to own him.

That’s it. That’s the low down.

On paper Federer is FAR superior than anyone past and present, but mentally he may be the most fragile clown tennis has ever known – at least amongst the 8 Slams and over bunch.

Other than the obvious residents of Federer’s brain, Nalbandian came pretty close too but lost the key to the front door just when he got there.

This is not similar to the Federer-Roddick BS. Roddick is not even on the same planet as far tennis skills are concerned. Both Nadal and Murray may not be either but they are at the closest one orbiting Federer’s.

If you have any doubt on this, next match should provide enough answers. And if that fails, the one after that should provide a PhD paper on it.

Photos.

Federer vs Verdasco.

Where’s everybody? There’s nobody in the stands.

Even for Federer and Nadal matches, more than half the stands were empty. Is it the economy? Duh!!! Why?

Because everything else is either same or better than previous years, including the weather, competition etc.

So unless there’s a Federer-Nadal final, we shouldn’t expect a house full even on that Sunday?

I think all events should provide FREE Wi-Fi and allow laptops in the stands to attract the younger generation to replace the assisted living center the tournaments now turn into.

ATP is getting with it. That’s a start. I now have reason to hope and live.

Roddick moves up couple of notches to eliminate Ferrer.

Roddick was clearly in the zone yesterday with his game close to the best I have seen in years. Even though Ferrer deserves credit for stifling defense, it was Roddick who kept coming up with great shots one after another, placing the ball just where he wanted from both wings.

The feel was so good for Roddick that he even attempted some very risky shots at critical points in the match, emboldened by his touch.

And what’s up with Ferrer walking in circles after each stressful point? If Ferrer can get on steroids and move up couple of inches in height, he can seriously trouble the big dogs specially Federer with his retrieving ability.

Roddick couldn’t have chosen a better time to get his game going. With Djokovic next and the history between the two, he will need all that he has and more to exact revenge for getting eliminated from the US Open last year. Not to mention the words he drew from Djokovic for his ’16 illnesses’ remark.

With temperatures rising everyday now at Indian Wells, Roddick should be hoping for duplication of the retirement drama from Djokovic similar to the one he pulled at this year’s AO.

Ferrer was the perfect stepping stone for Roddick to sharpen his game to face the world’s No. 3 on the surface he feels most comfortable. With Djokovic not really on a rampage this year, Roddick may earn another semifinal berth this year.

But to move any further, he will need a lot more.

Matches to come.

Quarterfinal:

Nadal vs Del Potro.

Djokovic vs Roddick.

Federer vs Verdasco.

Murray d Ljubicic.

Semifinal:

Murray vs ?

Nalbandian extends Nadal before surrendering.

Nadal escaped with the narrowest of margins to advance into the quarterfinals. Typically these kinds of close ‘saving match point’ wins, rejuvenates a player to make this ’W’ count.

Not winning a title after saving five match points, specially when you are on a roll AND No. 1, stings harder than if you never played these matches. It’s like a new lifeline, a second chance to take the hardware home. It’s pretty close to losing a match but being still allowed to carry on.

Given Nadal’s legendary competitive spirit, logically he should get even more fired up to win it all now.

It all came down to belief for the second set and physical fitness in the third. Nadal clearly prevailed on both counts with very little surprise or astonishment from the tennis world.

Nadal is having problems closing the deal. He had 14 break points and converted just five. For the tournament, after three matches, he is languishing at barely 38%. His first serve percentage may be partly to blame. He is at just 54%, lowest amongst the top four clowns.

Typically Nadal hovers around 70%.

Good news is that other than Murray, the other two contenders are not doing too great either.