What truck load of stuff needs to happen for Roddick to win tomorrow?
Posted by tennisplanet on July 4, 2009
While many have written off Roddick in most of his recent matches against Federer, particularly after the H2H passed 10, the conditions surrounding this one may force many to rethink that, if not revise their prediction.
Roddick is armed with some stuff he has NEVER had: Fantastic lay, smart coach, 15 pounds lighter, back to back confidence boosting wins, new and improved backhand and return and a first serve percentage hovering around 75 percent among others.
While Federer appears more than ready to handle that and more given his near flawless and consistent showing through six matches here, the matches they have had here have been very close, not reflected in the scoreline.
Additionally, Federer should have more than just winning another Slam on his mind when he walks out on the center court: Baby, No. 15, No. 6 etc. Add the experience of being a losing finalist with the on court drama, Sue Barker interview, McEnroe interview etc. etc. and Federer NEEDS to win this for a variety of reasons likely to stir emotions that may not all be congenial to playing natural tennis without shackles.
The one stroke that has conspicuously beaten Roddick over and over again is the time he approaches the net with Federer on the running forehand. The ball ALWAYS comes back crosscourt on Roddick’s forehand passing him EVERY freaking time.
You’ve got to be an absolute nut to not take corrective action on such a routine happening over and over again in the span of minutes.
Roddick also needs to use his improved backhand to force Federer to engage his weaker wing just like Nadal does. Easier said than done but Roddick has never been in a better position to execute it than now.
Roddick has to shoot for tie breaks like he did against Murray considering he has won what 90 percent of tie-breaks this year? Breaking Federer with his 66 first serve percentage and ace count may be too unrealistic to go all out for. Conserve energy for your own service games and the tie breaks and take the lumps then.
Of course the regulars have to show up as usual too: The first serve percentage, aces and forehand.
While it’s a lot to come together all at once, the one factor that may all make it possible this time is Roddick’s mental state. He knows this IS his last shot at that monkey and he knows he is better prepared this time than at any point in the past – physically and mentally.
Oh and he might need one more small nugget: Federer’s game unravelling BIG TIME.
Gracie said
Yes, Andy’s got to be super-motivated, which I think he will be. Both guys will be motivated for their own particular set of reasons. But I think Fed’s game has to drop a notch for Andy to have a serious chance. Then again, I’ve been surprised before…
chieko said
Gracie san I feel the same.
grendel said
“Breaking Federer with his 66 first serve percentage and ace count may be too unrealistic to go all out for.”
What does “to go all out for” mean? Just because a player has a high first serve percentage, a high ace count, doesn’t mean this is uniform throughout the match. Obviously there can be a dip in a given service game. Obviously, the other geezer then tries to make hay whilst.
Why should this be Roddick’s last shot? The fellow seems to be improving with age. Why should this process suddenly cease? Of course, it will cease at some point. Who says now? And Roddick is not alone. Look at Haas.
re pressure on Federer. He has claimed that that it was going for the fifth to match Borg which induced the most pressure. More than last year, to overtake Borg, more than this year, to overtake Sampras and. This year, indeed, he relaxed man. Do we believe him? I am inclined to. First, Federer seems to be quite truthful in these pressers, that’s my impression at least. And then, he kinda looks relaxed.
boxingary said
“Why should this be Roddick’s last shot?”
————————-
It shouldn’t be his last shot LITERALLY;
more like his last BEST shot.
Presumably, Nadal will be back as a force next year and
thereafter……Murray will only get better with each
passing year……Federer will almost certainly be past
#14 and therefore will have virtually no pressure. Soderling, Cilic and a host of others have time on their
side. Plus, by doing what he has done this fortnight,
Roddick won’t be able to enjoy the advantage of being
under the radar going forward…
grendel said
Ah, his last BEST shot because the others are getting better. Got it. I was thinking, why assume Roddick can’t get any better? Also, don’t forget other, unquantifiable variables – e.g. injury, strange happenings in the draw, sudden loss of form in potential rival, and so on. Roddick may just fade away next year. Equally, he may win. let’s say he doesn’t win today, but comes dead close. Heartbreak for some – for Roddick, a spur to push that extra inch next year. Character counts.
evie said
This is Fed on grass. Have you seen the guy play? He’s not remotely up and down the way he is at the other GS’s, especially RG. And the only place Roddick resides in Federer’s head is under his metaphorical thumb.
To win, Roddick needs to hold every single serve and get to TBs. Those can go any which way. Roddick is dangerous because of his serve and his newfound “confidence.” Also, he’s not a youngin’ who will be satisfied with getting to the final. That helps. But it takes an extraordinary person to beat Federer at Wimbledon. Look what it took Nadal — and he had both a winning record against Fed and the recent memory of taking Federer to the woodshed.
Anything can happen, and Roddick’s nerves will not get the better of him like they did Sod. But Fed is not going to let this opportunity slip through his fingers. He is going to take Roddick very, very seriously (a la Ivo) and he is going to win.
banti said
“He is going to take Roddick very, very seriously (a la Ivo) and he is going to win.”
This is why he’s won as many slams as he has. Roddick can basically play his mind off, but he’s not taking a single tiebreaker. Fed just needs to get the ball in play for that mini break to happen in the tiebreak. Once that happens its all but over for the big servers.
grendel said
Ivo served poorly to Fed in the first set, by his elevated standards, that is. Let Fed in – an absolute no-no. So although Fed’s returns on Ivo were spectacular, he was given amiable assistance by the good doctor. When Ivo serves as only he can, nobody returns it – it becomes a question of how long he can keep it up.
Why was Ivo’s serve so comparatively lacklustre in the first set? Clearly, nerves. The experienced Roddick is unlikely to suffer from this affliction. Roddick has, surprisingly (why is one surprised? should one be?) lived with Federer from the baseline in their last few encounters. And he has since improved out of sight. On the other hand, this is grass, point taken. Fed to win, but….
chieko said
I think Federer san’s draw at this Wimbledon turned out to be the best for him. He had Soderling san who is a big hitter to practise his hitting with. Then has Karlovic’s san to practise his big serve return with. And Haas san to practise playing agaist a rare serve and volleyer with. So even if Roddick san has the combined skills of the above three, our Federer san is ready for him.
Jenny said
That’s a good way to put it, Cheiko san. All we want now is a competitive final. It’s always sad there can only be one winner, because both are deserving.
Kevin said
This is a good read.
I was pretty disappointed Murray lost. No, I’m not British. I just thought the final would be really boring in another Roddick/Fed ‘event’.
We’d seen that movie far too many times. And there’s always just one ending.
Yet having thought that, I had to admit I don’t think I’ve every seen Roddick play better than he did in the semi against the young Scot.
He really does have a different game. He’s seems much better coached as well.
But this bit from your piece struck home: “Conserve energy for your own service games and the tie breaks and take the lumps then.”
Again, during the Murray semi, when the Scot had the easy put aways, Roddick would just WALK over to the other side of the court. It was, after all, Murray’s point to win or lose. He did this more than a couple times, conceding shots but not challenging points he had a 1% to 5% of returning.
And he wasn’t going to waste any energy over it.
Murray was supposed to run the older Roddick ragged; yet the American appeared fresher and less tired.
I think I may have been wrong. This may just be a good final after all…and a surprising one for Fed fans.