Will Volandri do for Federer what Canas has done for him thus far?
Posted by tennisplanet on April 8, 2008
If it wasn’t for Canas, Federer would have been down to the wire on his points for the top rank. Will Volandri prove to be the clay friend Canas has been on hard courts?
Volandri defeated Federer in the third round at Rome last year in straight sets. If Federer falters from his last year performance on clay he does have that cushion at Rome to catch up. If he goes deeper at Rome, and falters earlier at say Hamburg, it may take the sting out of the fall.
Once he gets past this loophole, he will have nothing to chew on until the Masters Series at Paris where Nalbandian knocked him out in the third round. Everything between Volandri and Nalbandian is either a trophy or a final.
Federer is hoping he will be able to recuperate fully by the time the gravy dries up. Maybe Federer needs to adopt this strategy for good by dropping out in the opening rounds of some events to give himself wiggle room next year and frustrate Nadal and Djokovic even further.
Despite Federer not winning any title this season and being knocked out early, and Nadal gaining points at all but one event he has played this year, Federer has been able to increase the lead from 350 to 670 points. Canas clearly deserves a dinner and more, Wawrinka permitting.
At the big four on clay (Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg and Roland Garros), Federer has one title, two finals and one third round from last year. That currently looks like a Herculean task based on his showing at his favorite surface. Add to it the fact that Nadal appears even more motivated and determined than last year, with critical improvements in his game, more importantly his serve and ace count.
It’s like going into a lion’s den without a gun or even a knife, when the lion has grown in strength from the last time you visited.
But unlike hard courts, there are fewer clay court specialists capable of knocking him out early. Other than Ferrer and maybe Almagro, there is no one to challenge Federer like he was by the likes of Djokovic, Murray, Fish and Roddick on hard courts.
Besides, despite losing to Canas twice and to Volandri last year, Federer did have a pretty good clay court season. Although there are many more marbles in the mix this year, if his physical condition is progressively getting better as he claims, on paper he is still head and shoulders better than anyone on clay, except Nadal.
Federer may not admit to it, but the pressure has to be immense and relentless, considering what all could have been / can be achieved this crucial season – from No. 14, Calendar Grand Slam, Golden Grand Slam, Roland Garros and the GOAT title to Olympic medal. Sudden emergence of Djokovic and his defiance is not helping matters either. And if there is something really brewing at home, it could not have popped up at the worst possible time.
The tennis Gods are coming half way to support Federer in his quest to retain his perch at the top spot. Will Federer keep his half of the bargain?
Tennis Planet 
Anand_101 said
I agree. On clay Fed cannot be attacked easily. Each point gives him more time to regain rhythm on his mobility and ground strokes.
So if Fed has a slightly-off day, there are fewer threats on clay than on hard courts (last year when he lost to Volandri, he was completely off).
The first couple of rounds are always dangerous and there he will face rankings lower than 32. The main threats seem to be Tipsy, Volandri and maybe Del Potro. If Fed has already played a match, I think he will beat them even on a “full mono day”.
In the middle rounds i.e. last 32 and last 16, there are a lot of dangerous lurkers — Moya, Monaco, Robredo, Ferrero, Hewitt, Almagro, Canas and Andreev. Fed needs to be determined and fight his way past this horde.
In the QF stage, the threats would be Ferrer and Nalbandian. By then, Fed will have enough rhythm and tempo to overcome them.
At the SF stage, Djoker is the threat. I am not still sure if Fed recovered enough to impose his will in a dogfight. Davydenko did well with his new strings but will it work on clay? Losing to Djoker on clay as well after the last few losses would dent Fed’s confidence quite a bit.
If Fed gets past Djoker and has a sharp day, I don’t see why he couldn’t take out Rafa. Fed will probably get fitter and have better results as the clay season progresses. Hopefully he will peak at RG!
Gracie said
“Wawrinka permitting” – You’re so funny!
Fed needs to work more consciously on his fitness right now, IMO. And maybe the slower surface, slower game could make it somehow easier to find his timing on clay this year. As you say, he’s still second best on the surface and a few early losses last year give him a bit of wiggle room in the points race.
For a decent analysis of the points and ranking scenarios of the top three players going into Roland Garros, check out tennis.com article, ‘Battle for No 1: Outlook for the Clay Season’ here:
http://www.tennis.com/features/general/features.aspx?id=124390
Rock said
To add to the list of half and full bagels he has eaten on hardcourts so far there are few more waiting to be consumed on clay courts before he begins his defense on the grass.
saras said
TP….
This discussion about Federer will go on till eternity.
Could have/would have/should have is like a never ending soap opera….
We should all get some rest for now & get recharged to start posting till the Clay cport season begins…when we will have something to talk about & write about.Enough already.
Till that time…all speculations flying in the universe with all those “If’s & But’s”…about Roger…
Jenny said
To be honest, I don’t see Volandri as being too much of a threat, provided Roger is fitter, but he does have a great backhand and is a shotmaker. Mahut, no not on clay, he’s a grasscourt man. I agree with Gracie, Roger needs to work on his fitness.
Amin said
Are there still people on the planet who really believe that Fed has or had mono? Nothing fits people. His dates keep changing and his stories also. There is nothing that’s wrong with his health. This fall had to come sooner or later. Nothing good lasts forever. It seems hard to believe but people do go under a tranformation at some point in their lives, especially athletes. Our bodies can only produce so much and then it closes down or becomes slower. It’s called aging or burnout. Fed has been running on fumes for the past 18 months and if, for the sake of argument, he is sick, then shouldn’t he just stop, rest and recuperate. he’s not going to gain anything from pushing himself. He’s just going to destroy what little he has left. Wise up Roger, you need to slow down.