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What can guarantee that Nadal will reach / exceed No. 16?

Posted by tennisplanet on July 10, 2010

There are a lot of scenarios but most of them will not only look unreasonable but wildly preposterous when reduced to paper. But when you are looking at a possibility of surpassing that insurmountable a record, you WILL have to step out a little. So given Nadal’s track record, current and future forecast on competition, historical precedents etc. you can at least attempt to produce a scenario that carries a remote but faintly credible chance of materializing – without going overboard ‘massively’.

So here it is:

IF Nadal can do whatever it takes to avoid relapsing into another of  his knee injury cycles, the ’08 run appears quite ‘duplicatable’ – regardless of the surface – as hard courts of Toronto and Olympics were part of the spoils for the season. Maybe he needs another ‘Barcelona’ in either Toronto or Cincy this year to replicate his clay court flourish on hard courts this season.

And IF he does, given everything we see today – from outside and inside – Nadal CAN and HAS to win the next five Slams to bring No. 16 or 17 to the surface. That means winning:

US Open ’10.

AO ’11.

FO ’11.

Wimby ’11.

US Open ’11.

That will bring him to No. 13 at age 25 – allowing him to close the deal with just Roland Garros if needed. That’s assuming that this spurt will bring him closer to shutting down prematurely due to aggravation it will cause to the knees. If not, then…………

The biggest puzzle is of course the US Open. For the last two years Nadal has reached the semis only to lose to Del Potro and Murray – both clear favorites to win the title. With the two now faced with their own problems – physical and mental – and Federer far less of a threat, Nadal may have a clean shot at it.

This sequence, if attained, can also produce some other sweet off shoots – like a career Slam and a calendar Slam – nice complement to No. 16 to advance his cause as being a fixture at the GOAT table – if not in solitude.


4 Responses to “What can guarantee that Nadal will reach / exceed No. 16?”

  1. MM said

    I can see him beating Fed’s record but not in the fashion you’ve laid out-

    4 of the next 5 French gives him 12

    3 of the next 5 Wimbledons gives him 15

    In the next 5, he should be able to nail a couple wins on the hard courts but of course the big question are his knees-even this year at Wimbledon, he had a scare-the hard courts are murder on him and his style.

    And who’s to say Roger is done? He might get another one or two himself.

    I think the best up and coming player is Del Porto. I have never seen a player hit such a hard and fast forehand-IMO it’s simply the best in the game-flat and smoking fast-for a preview of what is ahead of Rafa and Fed at the Open, remember last year-Nadal got murdered and Del Porto did not crack in a 5 setter win over Roger. That’s a very strong aspect of Roger’s game, he usually wins the longer matches because the little man on his shoulder has a sock in his mouth.

    • sperry said

      Makes sense. Smart way to look at it. I think the ONLY thing that will stop him would be his knees. It’s funny. I think: “He’s got soooo far to go, so much can happen to prevent him from doing it.” And then I watch him play, and think “20 is in the bag.”

  2. Chieko said

    TP sama what does c….. will leak has anything to do with this vote??? 😕

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