Guessing Rafa’s Seeding at the French Open This Year. From Chipnputt. Thanks.
Posted by tennisplanet on February 6, 2010
CHIPNPUTT
Guessing Rafa’s Seeding at the French Open This Year
I’ve tried to figure out Rafa’s seeding at Roland Garros this year. To do this, I took the current points of everybody in the top 10 and subtracted the points they have to defend until RG and got what one could call “effective points”, or EPs.
In the numbers below, the first column gives everyone’s EPs. (I have ranked the players according to their current EPs.) The second column gives how many EPs the player is ahead/behind Rafa right now. So for example, Roger has 11350 points right now but is defending 2170 until RG, so he has 11350-2170 or 9180 EPs. Rafa has 3090 EPs so Roger is 6090 ahead of him.
Here are the numbers:
(1) Federer 9180 +6090
(2) Djokovic 5130 +2040
(3) DelPo 5115 +2025
(4) Murray 5060 +1970
(5) Davy 4870 + 1780
(6) Nadal 3090 0
(7) Soderling 3085 -5
(8) Roddick 2990 -100
(9) Cilic 2655 -435
(10) Tsonga 2365 -725
Rafa is effectively #6 right now with #5 a solid 1780 points ahead and #7 and #8 only 5 and 100 points behind. And he’s going to miss a month of play. I’d be worried except that there are no big points on offer this month and lots of clay court points on offer until RG — 3 ATP 100 events at Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid (earliest one is in April) There are also 2 hard court ATP 1000 events at Indian Wells and Miami before RG, where he may not do so well. So my best guess is he can’t catch anyone above him but he also doesn’t get caught by Roddick, Cilic or Tsonga. Soderling is strong on both hard courts and clay and may get past Rafa.
My guess: Rafa is seeded #7 at RG. That means there is a 1 in 4 chance of him meeting Roger in the QFs and ending the semifinal streak. If he falls below #8, there is a 1 in 8 chance he’ll meet Roger in the pre-quarters.
Last observation: Federer is so far ahead — Djokovic is over 4000 EPs behind him — that barring Roger losing in almost every first round and Novak winning every tournament Sampras’ record of 286 week at #1 is almost certainly toast.
Tennis Planet 
Scott said
Nice analysis! It would be a fitting way for the streak to end– on clay against Rafa. After all, it has to end someday. However, going forward I have a feeling Roger that isn’t going to go down to Rafa softly, even on clay.
banti said
I have a feeling Roger is going to take them all down, yes I mean the Grand slam this year. Its finally happening people:) Meeting Rafa in the finals would be much more fitting I think at the French. I mean do you really want to see Murray go down in another slam final against Roger?
Jenny said
LOL I could be proved wrong, I don’t see Murray in a French Open final either, sorry. I really would have to eat crow!
chipnputt said
Thanks Scott. Yes, the streak has to end but I’d prefer if it wasn’t to a contemporary. Some young kid, a year or so from now, who will in time become one of the greats. Sort of like Sampras-Federer Wimbledon 2001.
Jenny said
Agreed, nice analysis, Chipnputt. I would disagree regarding Roddick, Soderling or Tsonga being a threat on red clay, [did I read this correctly?] but they have no clay pedigree as such, grass or hardcourts absolutely. I agree Soderling had a big run at RG, but he’s only ever won a single clay court title. With all due respect to Robin, but us clay court folk were really surprised he beat Gonzo in the semis, he has 8 clay court titles, it will be interesting to see how Robin fares on dirt this year.
chipnputt said
Thanks. I meant Tsonga and Roddick aren’t threats on clay. Robin is, as last year’s FO clearly shows– Ferrer, Nadal, and Gonzo. Yes, he has no pedigree as a clay courter, but then he had no pedigree in anything before last year’s FO. That was almost a re-incarnation. Over the last nine months, he has turned into a threat on everything.
Jenny said
I can’t disagree about Soderling, but I would also suggest the hard core dirtballers, Ferrer, Nadal, Gonzo weren’t as fit as they could have been. Are you going to watch Santiago?? It’s on Fromsport – Gonzalez vs Bellucci.
chipnputt said
Unfortunately, no Santiago for me. Have to really pick and choose my tennis watching — the majors for sure especially the second week, but beyond that it’s a handful more matches.
jennifur said
thanx 4 doin that calculating. guess most of feds points r in mid-late season (fo, wimble, cincy titles plus finals uso). thats when he will hv 2 defend, defend. rafa can gain.
but fed s/b #1 till french fur sure….
Chieko said
I really am so sad and would never have thought that our Nadal san would be so low in ranking. TO me this is unbelievable. But this seems to be reality now. SO I have to accept it. Thank you for educating me. The ranking is so cruel really.
I am loyal to my own hero. But I really grown to like Nadal san also. I pray that he will get well soon. So sorry so sorry.
jett09 said
So sorry too Chieko San.
Jenny said
Agree, Cheiko san, the ranking system, the pressure is cruel and relentless. It isn’t just about talent, there’s plenty of that on the Tour..
jett09 said
Hey Jenny, I have read a while ago that the ranking was different back then? When was it changed? and which do you prefer?
Jenny said
Hi Jett, I’m no expert on the ranking system, but I’m sure it was created in the 70’s, before I developed a serious interest in the game. I’m sure Gary, Gracie or other expert can fill us in on this one.
Before last year I understood the adds and deductions, it did take me a while to get to grips with it, but since last year the rank points were doubled, some tours changed status, dates, and sent me in a spin, so I rely on other posters to put me straight now!
M said
Chieko san, you can always be a true FEDAL (Federer + Nadal) fan.
We are rare, but very few can deny our good taste. 😀
kitty said
Nice Analysis!! Time and again it shows how awesome Fed was to “retain” the no.1 ranking for 4.5 years, that is an amazing record considering the ruthless tennis ranking system as Chieko pointed out
mircea said
Djokovic will fall out of top 5 by the end of the year.
evie said
Great piece. Rafa has so much to defend coming up, it seems inevitable he’ll be out of the top four. I’ve been bracing for a Fed-Rafa QF, because that seems most likely. And I just know they won’t end up on the opposite sides of the draw.
Fed could win, though. You never know. Miracles happen.
stuart said
I agree with Evie that Nadal will be on Federer’s side of the draw. It has a feeling of destiny about it. It’s almost like the tennis gods have lost control of Fed’s semi streak and they feel that the only way to stop it is by putting the greatest ever clay court player in his way.
I have mixed feelings about this. The streak has to end sometime and Nadal at the French would be a fittingly epic way to end an epic streak. On the other hand, if Fed wins then the record will have that much more significance.
But I’m a Fed fan and want the streak to last as long as possible. Besides, if it ends this way, it serves as a small reminder that we’ve forgotten what the purpose of seeding is. Wimbledon is the last slam to resist seeding according to world ranking and rightly so. Andy Roddick was the second seed for the French in 2004, which is just crazy. Henin didn’t even have and ranking points but she was always going to be one of the top 5 most likely winners. I know it would seem unfair to the ranked players if she were seeded, but shouldn’t seeding be based on who’s getting the best players to meet in the finals or semis? In fact exactly the same principle is at play with wildcards. I’ll bet it seemed unfair to some poor guy ranked 120 in 2001 when Ivanisavic got a wildcard instead of him, but no matter what his ranking, Ivanisavic was more likely to go deep in the tournament.
If Rafa’s knee’s are in anything like decent shape he’ll be the most likely person to win the French. It’d be a shame if the two players most likely to win the tournament play in the quarters.
Elizabeth Gregory said
I think it all depends on whether there’s a repeat last year when Djokovic became the second best player on clay. In the clay season, he met Rafa in the semis (Madrid) or finals (Monaco, Rome) of the run ups to RG.
Rafa was then (and probably still is) the best clay courter in the world, but Djokovic was nipping at his heels. These two men wore each other out resulting in Rafa’s knees breaking down and Djokovic’s losing confidence in himself.
I don’t know why, but Djokovic and Rafa usually play the best matches against each other (with Rafa usually winning). A few years back, they played Queens on grass (Rafa won) but it was some of the best grass court tennis I’ve ever seen. Neither man gave away a single point; whoever won the point had to outright win it. Same thing happened on clay in Monaco, Rome and Madrid.
This is a great rivalry which nobody talks about.
M said
“A few years back, they played Queens on grass (Rafa won) but it was some of the best grass court tennis I’ve ever seen.”
It was 08, in the runup to Wimbly. 🙂
jennifur said
totally agree!!! thank god least ONE other person noticed it. ; )
stuart said
didn’t see any of the match 😦
I’m a big Djokovic booster, but it’s difficult for me to visualise him playing that kinda great tennis on grass. He does seem to match up well against Nadal though, maybe even better than Federer.
Jenny said
I didn’t see the match at Queens either. However, I go along with Stuart’s comment regarding grass.
Serran said
This is a very well thought-out analysis. I agree with you for the most part, Rafa seems in big trouble if he wants to keep his ranking afloat (which I think shouldn’t be at all his priority right now). Being seeded at #7 or lower puts him in real risk, not only of running into Federer, but also many other guys who could end his quest prematurely if he is not 100% fit.
That said, to me it would be the sweetest thing to extend the SF streak to 24 by beating rafa in the QF. And I think federer could pull it off. We don’t really know how much of federer’s mental block in the past RG finals was due to Nadal and how much was due to the situation itself (RG final, a tournament he’s never won, a real shot at a Calendar Slam, and in 2006 and 2007 if he had won he would have been holding all 4 majors at the same time).
So there were many external factors applying pressure on Roger, besides the obvious and biggest one of facing Rafa. This year however things are a lot different: he has already won the French, he doesn’t have a chance to simultaneously hold all 4 majors and he knows that Rafa is struggling physically, which could give him just the extra bit of confidence he needs. As a tennis fan tough, I still hope Rafa lands in the other half of the draw and that they both make it to the finals again.
In any case we’re looking at a wonderfully exciting French Open. And, may I add, the first one I’ll be able to watch without having to worry about my final exams, which will make it even sweeter ^_^
M said
“As a tennis fan though, I still hope Rafa lands in the other half of the draw and that they both make it to the finals again.”
That’s all I’d have to say on the subject. Thank you, Serran.
Ash said
I just cannot see Federer and Nadal on the same side of the draw at the French. It would be bad for the tournament. Money talks.
M said
You’re so smart, Ash. 😉
jennifur said
so draws r fixed??? what does $$ hv 2 do w/it? dont they pull names out of container??
Anonymous said
Nadal can’t make it to finals these days, so he needs to be on Federer’s side of the draw to keep the rivalry going!